As we expected, the Democratic Leadership managed to muscle its caucus to get the Reid Healthcare Bill to the floor by voting for cloture on the motion to proceed.  It would have been nice to strangle this ugly monster in the crib by defeating cloture but this is not the end of the fight to kill ObamaCare; it is really just the beginning.

Republican Senators do not have enough votes to defeat the Reid Health Bill by themselves.  It requires 41 votes to sustain a filibuster, and there are only 40 Republicans in the Senate.  In other words, if both Senate Independents vote with the 58 Democrats on the Reid Bill, as they do usually, there would be 60 votes to pass the Reid Bill without the need of a single Republican vote. 

In reality, however, there are not 58 Democrats and two Independents willing to vote for the Reid Bill as it is currently configured.  Two Democrats (Blanche Lincoln and Ben Nelson) and one Independent (Joe Lieberman) have announced that they will not vote for the bill as it is written currently, indeed all three have announced they will not even vote for cloture to shut off debate on the existing bill and move it to a vote on final passage.

Therefore, in order to pass the Senate, the Reid Bill will have to be amended sufficiently to win over the recalcitrant Democrats and Independents. 

It is a certainty that any amendment sufficient to win over one or more Democratic or Independent holdouts will be sufficiently controversial that the amendment itself will require 60 votes to overcome a filibuster and be adopted.  Indeed, at least one—perhaps two and maybe even three—such necessary amendments will be so controversial they will not likely receive the support of all 58 Democrats and both Independents.  Michigan Senator Debbie Stabenow, for instance, says she will not support the Stupek language.  For each more moderate Democrat or Independent an amendment wins over, it is guaranteed to lose at least one farther-left Democrat. 

Therefore, it almost certainly will be the case that one, two or three of the amendments necessary to make the bill acceptable to 58 Democrats and both Independents will require one or more Republican votes to make up for Democratic defections if they are to be adopted.  If Republicans refuse to give the Democratic Leadership their votes on these critical amendments, they will fail and hence the bill itself will fail for want or 60 votes to invoke cloture and move the bill to final passage where it will require only 50 votes to pass the Senate. 

That being the case, even though the Republican Conference does not have the votes to defeat the bill outright on final passage nor even to sustain a filibuster by itself, Republican Senators acting in concert do have it within their collective power to prevent the bill from being amended in a manner that would make it acceptable to 58 Democrats and both Independents.  If Republicans hang together and deny Democrats the votes they need to make the bill acceptable to all Democrats and Independents, they can defeat the Reid Bill.  If Republicans fail to hang together, they will be responsible for allowing the bill to pass the Senate and be enacted into law.  It’s that simple.

To exercise the enormous power at their disposal, all Republican Senators must be prepared to deny the Democrats their “yea” on any amendments or motions that would improve the chances of the bill’s garnering 58 Democratic and two Independents’ votes on a final cloture vote to shut off debate on the bill and bring it to a vote on final passage.  Two types of amendments in particular will require Republican Senators to vote “present” and perhaps even “no” to deny Democrats the votes they need to adopt amendments demanded by holdout Democratic Senators, namely amendments to provide anti-abortion Democrats (e.g., Ben Nelson) an anti-abortion fig leaf to hide behind and amendments to provide anti-public-option Democrats and Independents (e.g., Blanche Lincoln and Joe Lieberman) a fig leaf to hide behind so they can say they voted against the public option and government-run healthcare.

These will be difficult votes for Republicans since some single-interest groups, anti-abortion groups in particular, will threaten to oppose Senators’ re-election if they fail to vote for a fig-leaf amendment.  The United States Conference of Catholic Bishops (USCCB) will be particularly ruthless and relentless in pressuring Republicans to “improve” the bill by voting for language that reputedly (though not actually) will prevent a government-run healthcare system from becoming a wholesale abortion clinic. 

The USCCB is doubly intense about doing whatever it must to apply an anti-abortion fig-leaf amendment to the bill.  First, USCCB intensely supports a government takeover of healthcare, and it will do anything it can to make sure a government takeover occurs.  Hence, an anti-abortion fig-leaf amendment is a double benefit to the Bishops because second, they truly, though erroneously believe it is possible to restrain a government-run healthcare system once established from providing and facilitating abortion; it is not.  The Bishops are deluding themselves and misleading the American public.

Republicans must educate Catholics as well as non-Catholic opponents of abortion that the USCCB is wrong on both counts.  In particular, it is incumbent upon Republicans to explain to the American public that the best, no the ONLY way to prevent a government-run healthcare system from turning into an wholesale abortion clinic is to prevent the government takeover of healthcare in the first place.

As much as Republicans may not want to hear it, the fact is if opponents of government-run healthcare are to succeed in stopping a government takeover of the medical system, it is essential for all Republicans to stand shoulder to shoulder and refuse to lend the Democrats any votes to make the Reid Bill more likely to pass. 

Here is how Minority Leader Mitch McConnell can explain what they are doing:

“The Republican Conference stands unanimous in its conviction that the Reid Bill is a government monstrosity waiting to be born.  If enacted into law, the Reid Bill will undermine individual liberty; lead to healthcare rationing and particularly harm senior citizens; increase federal spending, taxes and the national debt beyond acceptable levels; severely harm the economy; and virtually eliminate personal privacy in the United States of America (except the privacy to terminate the life of an unborn child, with or without a fig-leaf anti-abortion amendment).  The bill is so bad, no amount of amending it on the Floor of the Senate, short of replacing it with an entirely new plan, will suffice to make the bill acceptable.  Therefore, no Republican Senator will do anything to facilitate or enhance the bill’s chances of passing the U.S. Senate. 

“Republicans reject the argument that ‘the bill must inevitably pass the Senate and so therefore it is incumbent on Republicans to do everything possible to “improve” and “perfect” the bill.’  To the contrary, this bill cannot pass the Senate, and we are firm in our conviction that any marginal improvements in the bill will only make it more likely that a still-unacceptable bill will be enacted into law.

“According to public opinion polls, a majority of the American people agrees with the conclusion of our Conference.  Therefore, if Democrats insist on ignoring the opinion of the people and want to ram this bill down the throats of the American public, the Democratic Party will have to carry the entire weight of amending the bill on the Floor of the Senate by itself, and Democrats will bear complete responsibility for enacting this atrocious legislation into law.  Republicans will give Democrats no assistance whatsoever.  We will not become parties to this crime by helping make the bill acceptable to just enough Senators to pass it while we all vote against it on final passage.

“As we evaluate the legislative situation at this moment, based upon the public statements of several Democratic and Independent Senators, the Reid Bill does not enjoy sufficient support within the Senate Democratic Caucus to pass.  The bill cannot, as written, receive the 60 votes it will require to overcome a filibuster and pass the Senate.  That means if the Democrats are to pass the bill, they will have to amend it sufficiently to win over their Democratic and Independent holdouts.  Republicans will not help them do so.

“If Democrats want to amend the bill sufficiently to win over Democrat and Independent opponents, they must do so by themselves.  No Republican Senator will help amend the bill in any fashion that aids the Democratic Leadership win over Democrats and Independents who oppose the bill at it currently is configured. 

“This is a Democratic bill, and it cannot pass the Senate.  This bill is so bad, there is no imaginable way to amend it on the Floor of the Senate to make it acceptable.  The bill is so flawed, it must be scrapped and rewritten from scratch.

“The Democratic Leadership put this bill together in secret and designed it to appeal to the far left of the Democratic Party.  Now they want to do a bait-and-switch on their most liberal colleagues and are looking to Republicans to provide them sufficient votes to out vote the far left of their party and moderate the bill just enough to win over the several recalcitrant Democrats and Independents who refuse to vote for the bill as currently configured.  We will not provide the Democratic leadership the votes they need to impose this monstrosity on the American people.

“With respect to abortion in particular, the Republican Conference believes it is not possible to turn healthcare over to the government to run and still then prevent the politicians, bureaucrats and judges from turning the government healthcare system into an abortion mill.  Any amendment language that purports to staunch government-funded, government-assisted abortion will be a mere fig leaf, which will not achieve the purpose it is intended to achieve. 

“The only way to prevent turning the American healthcare system into a wholesale abortion clinic is to refrain from turning healthcare over to the government to run.

“The Republican Conference believes, therefore, that a vote in favor of any amendment purported to restrict or prevent government-funded and government-assisted abortion is actually a vote in favor of government-run healthcare and hence any such vote is ultimately a vote for abortion.  We will not countenance such an atrocity and will not be responsible for assisting such an atrocity to occur.  Therefore, we will not vote for any such anti-abortion fig-leaf amendment.”